The World's No.1 Interest Rate - 24 March 2010

Ten-year US Treasury bond yields are one of the most important numbers in the world...

WANT THE BIG picture? Let's check in with one of the most important numbers in the world, says Brian Hunt in Steve Sjuggerud's Daily Wealth – the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond.

The "10-year" is the most widely followed gauge of how much interest Uncle Sam must pay to borrow money. Many analysts, like our colleague Porter Stansberry, expect this rate to head higher.

The higher interest rate argument says the US government is racking up huge debts right now...and just as a bank would demand higher rates to loan money to the town drunk versus the town preacher, Uncle Sam's creditors will eventually demand higher rates as well.

Below is the past two years of the 10-year yield. In the last nine months, the 10-year yield has fluctuated between a high of 3.94% and a low of 3.17%. But in a series of "higher highs and higher lows," this number has crept back up to the 3.6%-3.8% area.

Keep an eye on this number. If it pops above its 2009 high and reaches 4%, it's a sign the "higher interest rate" crowd is right... and Uncle Sam is going to have some ugly interest payments ahead.

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Steve Sjuggerud, 24 Mar '10
Former stock-broker, mutual-fund vice-president and hedge-fund advisor Dr. Steve Sjuggerud is the founder and editor of True Wealth. Launched in 2001 and now one of America's best-followed newsletters for private investors, True Wealth also provides free analysis and ideas in the Daily Wealth email service.